Day Trading

I'm not familiar with CNBC's Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge, so I don't know what their investing time horizon is like for this task. Depending on how long that horizon is, I would probably make different sets of choices for your million dollars. Over a longer horizon, I would probably do some research and then pick 20 stocks, $50,000 each, and then let them sit there and do nothing for several months as that is, historically, the best way to get a return on investment. Too much "in and out" of the market would kill you on commission costs alone anyway.

First, you're using Vantage Point to day trade, but they will tell you that Vantage Point is for position trading. Yes, they're predicted high/low is very accurate (granted, major moves can be outside the range, but how often do you have a huge 1 day move?), but it only tells you the possible high/low, now what the trading pattern for the day will be.

One thing I could suggest is this: Use the Short Term/Medium Term Predictive averages (the pink and light blue lines, I have mine set on the bottom part of the chart) to get an idea of when prices could be changing direction. Also, when you switch from the 10 day or 5 day average to the predicted high/low, you'll notice that the short/medium predictive lines will be different that from the 10/5 day chart. What I do is when the short predictive (light blue) line crosses the medium (pink) line on both the 5/10 day and predicted high/low chart, is when I get an indication markets will turn (and it's very accurate).

When that happens, since you day trade, use your technicals on whatever time frame chart you're using to take trade only in the direction of the crossover. For example, say you're watching the S&P 500, the market is trending up and you notice that on the 5 or 10 day chart that the short term predictive has crossed below the medium term, and when you switch to the predicted high/low chart that the short has not crossed below the medium predictive, but is about to, wait till the short crosses below the medium predictive on the predicted high/low chart (that is short has crossed below medium on both 5/10 and predicted high/low chart). When that happens, use your technicals to time short entries, don't go long. In other words, say you're using a 5 minute chart. If the market is trending up, and you're technicals give you a signal for a short, then take the short trade.

When the signals show the 5 minute chart starting to turn back up again, close your short, but do not go long, only enter again when you get a sell signal.

Trade in the direction of the larger trend. You should get less whipsaws and will be trading in the direction of the larger trend. When the short crosses above the medium predictive on both the 5/10 and predicted high/low chart, the only take long trades.

Hope that helps.

You can trade futures on the Hang Seng index from a number of brokerages, including Interactive Brokers. (You cannot trade an index directly. You have to use some tool such as a futures contract or an ETF.)

<<<I've noticed that very often the Asian Market follows the US market's previous day's results, am watching to see how often this happens. What a trading advantage it would be to be able to predict with fair accuracy what will happen in Asia and be able to trade accordingly. Any ideas?>>>

I am not sure how you expect to use US market results to improve your trading results. Every other trader in the world has the same information readily available, so any impact will be factored into the price at least as quickly as you can submit a trade order.

The books recommended by others here are great. It's hard to advise you further not knowing how much you do/don't know about the market. The paper trading practice sites are an essential. Try those out in earnest and you'll save yourself from unnecessary mistakes later when errors cost real money.

I find that it's important to do a few things:

1. Chart the S&P for uptrends and downtrends – when you see an established trend the market will tend to move that way, and stay within the down slope and up slope "channel" in its daily activity for multiple days. This gives you added confidence as to when to "buy", when to "add to" your position, and when to cash out. When a stock busts out up or down that can be the opportunity to get in or out (depending on direction) of a given index, ETF, or stock. This will also help you stabilize your stock monitoring because you will focus on the stocks at present which are near "support (floor)" or ceiling (resistance)" positions. To help me do this, I've found it is incredibly valuable to have a second computer screen (I use two PCs because I'm mobile when I want to be) with several key screens of data/chart references.

One screen has no more than 6 stocks I'm watching that day, with charts on each screen.

One screen has all major sectors' charts on it – by sector fund (USO, OIH, etc.)

One screen has 52 week uptrending stocks I'm monitoring for pullbacks

Other screens are categoric (e.g., AG companies)

2. Using other resources such as the 52 week high stocks (WSJ, YahooFinance, Google Finance, etc.), and Top 100 (IBD.com) are also opportunities to check for trends, and determine whether to jump on this momentum during a given day, or to wait for a pullback and get in before a multi-day upswing for a multi-day "swing" trade. If you put in the time, you will identify pending breakouts.

3. Listen to Fast Money to pick up on hot trends and expert interviews that can indicate stocks to watch since they have such a wide audience.

4. Keep track of volume levels and beware of low volume days.

5. Track sector movement and rotations. Institutional buyers will dictate what will move, whether it "makes sense" to you or not.

6. Listen to Art Cashen (sp?) – every morning about 9:15 AM EST before the market opens. His insights are usually good indicators to align with or watch for. Good pulse on the market.

7. Know that a margin account can be traded every day with no interest if you don't carry it over night. Non-margin accounts will have a 3 day carry cycle until you can reinvest the funds.

Best wishes for success. Cramer can be a goof on some topics, but knowing what he's tracking can also give you one or two key stocks to watch for the next day if conditions align to support those stocks. His trading rules lists are very good.

Step-by-Step Stock Investing for Beginners

http://www.stock-investment-made-easy.com/

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=As61UR4DWXZnVDIVK6se6XLty6IX?qid=20070717183111AAk8IIS&show=7#profile-info-kFApW5uJaa

Any mutual fund or ETF that is based on that particular index will need to make trades in order to make sure that it doesn't drift too far from the index. That's why there is so much trading around rebalancing days.

As for why the Russell indexes are important – the DOW (30 stocks) and the S&P (500 stocks) are an indication of how the large capitalization stocks in the US are doing. The Russell indexes give one a better idea about mid caps and small caps as well. If one wants exposure to smaller companies then these indexes are better suited than the more narrower large cap indexes mentioned above.

The US Dollar has also gained against the Indian Rupee (INR) and the Russian Rouble (RUB).

The biggest gains as of now have come from a rally against the Japanese currency, so if you're into trading USD, this is where you should continue to see profits over the short to medium term.

I recommend you look at Pound Sterling (GBP) as well as it's been a traditionally strong currency. Include it in your forex portfolio and part of your daily trade.

IWM – iShares Russell 2000® Index
QQQQ – Nasdaq-100® Trust Shares
SMH – Semiconductors HOLDRs
GE – General Electric Co.
AMD – Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
MSFT – Microsoft Corp.
INTC – Intel Corp.
CAT – Caterpillar Inc.
WFMI – Whole Foods Market Inc.
TXN – Texas Instruments Inc.
A – Agilent Technologies Inc.
FLEX – Flextronics International Ltd.
SUNW – Sun Microsystems Inc.

Implied volatility (IV) does not usually change much during a typical day. Events which have a big impact on IV usually come out as press releases while the market is closed.

Without significant changes in IV or time until expiration, you will be unable to get much help from vega or theta in your trading. That means you will have to rely on delta, and possibly gamma, to make a profit.

Since the delta of an option is always less than the delta of an equivalent stock position, and the bid-ask spread is almost always greater for the options than for the stock, it takes a larger move in the stock price to break even using options instead of stock for day trading.

I am one of those who believes it is difficult to make a profit day trading stocks, and since it would be even more difficult to make a profit day trading options, I would not recommend day trading options to anyone.

I recognize the large percentage profits possible day trading options, but a large percentage of a small number is still a small number. That means to make a large profit you would need to risk a fairly large amount. I am not comfortable with that risk profile in my portfolio.

In order to understand how markets work it is always better to have a good knowledge of the markets themselves. Few traders actually know this and this explains why a lot lose money on the derivative markets. One of the key ingredients to success is to understand the fundamental basics of supply and demand. Chartism also plays its role if you take the time to undestand it.

What I don't like about the programs that give people technical analysis information and "buy" and "sell" signals is that despite their claims of instant riches why is it that most people who make money on the market NEVER use them? There is the old saying "if something seems too good to be true isn't it the case it usually is?"

Many years ago I received a maling shot through the post about a program that could predict the exact peaks and troughs of the FTSE and other major indices. It said it had 90% accuracy and went back as far as 1901 predicting the 1930's slump! You just push in numbers and like magic instant wealth is produced. Now that's amazing software!

A few months later the entire company were exposed as a fraud on BBC television – which hardly surprised me!

The truth is that there are so many variables to the movements in stock prices and commodities that having a clear set mathematical formula for success is almost impossible. If you understand the correct method of trading and how to use derivatives correctly you can be on the way to a small fortune but this requires intelligence, vigilance and patience – qualities that most traders don't have.

I have found Tradindex to a a superb company which have given me one of the easiest trading platforms imaginable. However, a lot boils down to personal taste.

Another company I highly recommend is this one:

http://www.finspreads.com

Also try this brilliant authoress:

Toni Turner (http://www.toniturner.com/)

Good luck with your trading!